Report

From 8–16 November 2024, a six-member delegation of the Canada–Europe Parliamentary Association (CAEU) travelled to Tallinn, Estonia; Warsaw, Poland; and Riga, Latvia as part of a parliamentary mission.

The delegation included the Hon. David Wells, Senator, Vice-President, CAEU; the Hon. Brent Cotter, Senator; the Hon. Rebecca Patterson, Senator; Stéphane Bergeron, M.P.; Pam Damoff, M.P.; and Viviane Lapointe, M.P. 

The delegation was accompanied by the association secretary, Jessica Kulka, and an association adviser, BJ Siekierski.

PARLIAMENTARY MISSION TO ESTONIA

A. Meeting with Laird Hirdle, Canada’s Ambassador to Estonia   

Late in the afternoon of 10 November 2024, the delegation arrived in Tallinn and was greeted by Laird Hirdle, Canada’s Ambassador to Estonia, and Kairi-Liis Ustav, Programs Officer at the Embassy of Canada to Estonia.

As it was a Sunday, and no interlocutors were available, Ambassador Hirdle showed the delegation Canada’s embassy, which opened in 2023, and important landmarks in the city. During Ambassador Hirdle’s guided tour, the delegation had a chance encounter with a Ukrainian soldier on leave from the frontlines of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The soldier showed members of the delegation pictures of his best friend, who had been killed the week before by Russian artillery fire. Senator Patterson, a retired Rear-Admiral in the Canadian Forces, spoke to the soldier briefly about the current state of the war and thanked him for his service.

B. Briefing by Laird Hirdle, Canada’s Ambassador to Estonia

delegation before it departed for a Remembrance Day ceremony at Estonia’s military cemetery. The ceremony, he said, would be the first time the British, French, and Canadians held a Remembrance Day ceremony together in Estonia.

Ambassador Hirdle began his briefing by informing the delegation that, in 2007, there had been violent protests in the country after the Estonian government relocated a Soviet war memorial from downtown Tallinn to the military cemetery. The two-metre-tall bronze statue, which stood on a burial site for Soviet soldiers, was viewed by Estonians as a painful reminder of the Soviet occupation. Ethnic Russians, in contrast, saw it as an important tribute to the millions of Soviet soldiers and civilians who died during World War II – what Russians refer to as the “Great Patriotic War.” In the wake of the statue’s move, Estonia was hit by major cyber attacks from Russia. Those attacks spurred Estonia’s transformation into a digital powerhouse, nicknamed “E-Stonia.”

After providing an overview of the delegation’s program in Estonia, Ambassador Hirdle answered the delegation’s questions. In light of Russia’s efforts to push migrants across its border with Finland – what the Finnish had condemned as Russia’s “weaponization of migration” – members questioned why Russia had refrained from doing the same to Estonia. Ambassador Hirdle answered that it was in neither Russia’s nor Estonia’s interest to see the border closed. He said that in an Estonian city like Narva, only separated from Russia by the Narva River, families often live on both sides.

Ambassador Hirdle and Ms. Ustav were then asked if ethnically Russian Estonians consider themselves Russian, and how ethnic Russians integrate into the Estonian Defence Forces (EDF). Regarding the first question, Ms. Ustav replied that it was a complex issue and likely evolving in light of new changes to the Estonian education system. Starting that September, she explained, Estonia had transitioned to an entirely Estonian-language education system. Whereas in some schools, Russian had been the main language of instruction, it would now only be taught as a foreign language, like any other. At the same time, she said there are no issues with integration into the armed forces. She pointed out that a significant portion of senior Estonian officers served in the Soviet army.

Ambassador Hirdle and Ms. Ustav were also asked about the rights of the estimated 70,000 ethnic Russians in Estonia who have neither Estonian nor Russian citizenship. Ms. Ustav explained that Estonian citizens require visas to travel to Russia, whereas permanent residents with grey or “alien” Estonian passports (travel documents issued by the Estonian government to certain non-citizens) do not. As a result, some ethnic Russian Estonians prefer not to become Estonian citizens.

Ambassador Hirdle concluded his briefing by discussing the current dynamic in the Estonian Parliament. He said the three-party coalition government (Estonian Reform Party, the Social Democratic Party, and Eesti 200) has a coalition agreement that lasts until 2027 and is quite stable. On defence and foreign policy, he added, this is very little that separates the parties. He specifically mentioned nuclear power and municipal voting rights for permanent residents as areas of disagreement among the coalition partners.

C. Remembrance Day ceremony

The delegation then attended the Remembrance Day ceremony at the Estonian military cemetery. Several military officials and dignitaries, including the Commander of the United Kingdom (U.K.) Forward Land Forces missions in Estonia and Poland, members of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), and the British and French ambassadors to Estonia, attended and gave readings. Ambassador Hirdle and Senator Wells laid a wreath.

D. Martin Roger, Undersecretary for Political Affairs, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

The delegation next met with Martin Roger, Undersecretary for Political Affairs at the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Mr. Roger began by noting that a steady stream of Canadian parliamentarians had visited Estonia since the Government of Canada had converted its office in the country into a full embassy in 2023. He said the Estonian government was appreciative and had already increased its footprint in Canada several years earlier by buying a building in Ottawa. Undersecretary Roger also highlighted the planned 2025 opening in Toronto of the Keskus International Centre – a gathering place for Estonian-Canadians – which he said was of great importance to the Estonian diaspora. He then turned his attention to the election of President Trump, asking the delegation what impact they thought it would have on Canada’s bilateral relationship with the United States (U.S.) and American support for Ukraine.

Members of the delegation noted that there was particular concern in Canada about President Trump’s threats vis-à-vis trade and defence. On defence, they said they expected Trump to continue criticizing Canada’s failure to meet the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) 2% of GDP defence spending target. While the Government of Canada has committed to doing so by 2032, they expressed scepticism that that timeline would satisfy the president. As a result, they suggested there could be serious consequences, such as the end of the bilateral North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) arrangement.

Other members of the delegation pointed out that, despite missing the NATO target, Canada had made significant investments in NORAD’s modernization in recent years, and that bilateral military-to-military ties have always been stable, irrespective of any differences between Canadian and American governments. They added that, with rare exceptions, Canadians have historically seen themselves as peacekeepers and resisted significant defence expenditures. At the same time, some also suggested there was a rare political consensus in Canada on the need to increase defence spending, in the current context, and that the government needed to seize the moment. 

Regarding trade, some members underscored the successful Canada-United States-Mexico trade agreement negotiations as a reason for optimism and added that the North American automotive industry had repeatedly stressed there are no borders when it comes to North American automotive manufacturing. It was also pointed out Prime Minister Trudeau had re-established a Cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations.

The conversation then turned to the war in Ukraine. Erika Ellamaa-Ots, Director General for Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasized that Vladimir Putin’s objectives have not changed since his speech at the 2007 Munich Conference, and that he wants NATO’s eastward expansion, to countries like Estonia, rolled back. She said that he continues to believe time is on Russia’s side in its war against Ukraine.

Mr. Roger echoed that observation and added that it was also crucial to understand how unlikely it was, in the post-Putin era, that Russia would become less imperialistic. He stressed the urgent need to increase the pace of military assistance to Ukraine while also reducing the restrictions on what Ukraine can do with the materiel it is provided. He said he was pleased to see the G7 finalize an agreement in October to make loans to Ukraine using the income generated from $US50 billion in frozen Russian assets, but that Ukraine’s needs were in the order of $500 billion. He believed it was time to begin using the assets themselves.

Mr. Roger concluded by thanking Canada for hosting an international conference, earlier in the month, on the human dimension of Ukraine’s 10-point peace formula. He said that historically, Russia has never reckoned with any of its crimes and that there cannot be impunity for the deportation of Ukrainian children and the unlawful detention of Ukrainian civilians. Finally, Mr. Roger said that the annual Canada-Baltic 3 + 1 foreign ministers’ meetings were an important recent development and would further strengthen the three countries’ relations with Canada. 

E. Tõnis Saar, Secretary General to the Minister of Justice and Digital Affairs

Later that day, on 11 November 2024, the delegation had a working lunch with Tõnis Saar, Secretary General to the Minister of Justice and Digital Affairs. Mr. Saar stood in for Justice and Digital Affairs Minister Liisa-Ly Pakosta, who was unable to attend. 

Mr. Saar began by noting that the government of Prime Minister Kristen Michael, sworn in in July, had transferred responsibility for “digital affairs” to the Ministry of Justice. Under the government’s coalition agreement, he explained, the coalition partners had agreed to further digitalize government services and give the Ministry of Justice responsibility for several of the country’s IT agencies.

One goal, he said, was to further digitalize court proceedings and determine where artificial intelligence could be appropriately used in the justice system.  He noted that Ontario Attorney General Doug Downey had visited Tallinn in February to learn about Estonia’s experience. At the same time, he told the delegation that the Estonian government has also tried to learn from Canada, and specifically mentioned the creation of Shared Services Canada – the Government of Canada’s consolidation of its IT infrastructure – as an example.

Mr. Saar also mentioned the opening, in June 2024, of the Estonian Biobank, which contains DNA samples of 210,000 Estonians – roughly 20% of the country’s population – and which now provides Estonian participants with information about their metabolisms, predisposition to certain diseases, and ethnicity. He suggested that it could eventually lead to a significant reduction in missing persons cases. In response, Senator Cotter noted that there was legislation, under consideration in the Canadian Senate, that proposed expanding the collection of DNA and its storage in Canada’s National DNA Data Bank. The goal of the proposed legislation was to help law enforcement agencies solve crimes, he said, but concerns had been raised about proportionality, privacy, and transparency. He also mentioned the Supreme Court of Canada’s 2020 ruling to uphold a law banning third parties from demanding genetic information.

The conversation then turned to the subject of cybercrime and cybersecurity. Mr. Saars said that the large-scale Russian denial of service attacks against the Estonian public and private sector in April 2007 – a response to the previously mentioned movement of the Soviet Bronze Soldier monument – was transformative for the country. He said that there is now a significant amount of cybersecurity collaboration between the private and public sectors in Estonia, with many people going between the two during their careers.

Estonia’s cyber range – a project launched by the Estonian Ministry of Defence in 2021, was cited as an example of public-private collaboration. Mr. Saar explained that it allows companies to test their cyber defences in a controlled environment. Nonetheless, he said, there are still significant vulnerabilities and more needs to be done. He highlighted the massive data breach, the previous April, at the Apotheka pharmacy chain, which affected hundreds of thousands of Estonians.  

F. Meeting with Kalev Stoicescu, Chairman of National Defence Committee in the Riigikogu and other Estonian Members of Parliament

Late in the afternoon on 11 November, the delegation went to the Riigikogu (Estonian Parliament) to meet with Kalev Stoicescu, the Chairman of the National Defence Committee, and other Estonian parliamentarians.

Mr. Stoicescu began the meeting by noting that he had been Estonia’s ambassador to the U.S. and Canada in the 1990s. At the time, he said, Estonia was trying to join the European Union (EU), NATO, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Mr. Stoicescu then turned his attention to the election of President Trump and the impact his presidency could have on the war in Ukraine. He stressed that the roughly 70 remaining days of the Biden presidency were going to be vitally important and that the time needed to be used wisely. He anticipated Russia applying maximum pressure in what remained of the Biden presidency to secure a stronger position in any upcoming negotiation. He said history has repeatedly shown that Russia only respects and responds to strength, but that the West often forgets that lesson.

Eerik-Niiles Kross, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and a former director of Estonia’s intelligence services, was of the view that Russia would escalate its attacks on Ukraine until it is stopped. He also pointed out that the U.S. had only delivered 10% of the military aid to Ukraine that Congress approved in 2024. He said the collective West appears to fear an outright Ukrainian victory and is providing Ukraine enough support to avoid defeat, but not enough for it to win the war. Leo Kunnas, another member of the National Defence Committee, expressed the opinion that the war was in a deep stalemate and that Ukraine could not meet its massive personnel and materiel requirements. Nonetheless, he said President Trump would be unable to end the war without putting U.S. forces on the ground, since only Ukrainians would decide when they were prepared for negotiations.

On the topic of defence spending, Mr. Stoicescu said that President Trump was right to demand more of NATO allies. Baltic countries like Estonia, he added, which is spending 3.4% of GDP on defence, should not be punished for their geography. He said that 2.5% of GDP should be the absolute minimum that NATO members allocate to defence expenditures. Mr. Kross, for his part, pointed out that Estonia has spent more on ammunition in the last three years than in the previous 30.

The meeting concluded with a discussion about the implications for Taiwan of the war in Ukraine. Luisa Rõivas, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, noted that she had been in Taiwan the previous week and that its citizens were not prepared to defend themselves from a Chinese invasion. She said the prevailing view was that China could take Taiwan in a matter of days. Meelis Kiili, a member of the National Defence Committee, disagreed. He argued that China would already have invaded Taiwan if it believed that doing so would be that easy. Furthermore, he said, the failure of the pro-China Kuomintang Party to win recent elections was evidence that most Taiwanese are prepared to defend themselves.

G. Meeting with Founding Members of the Estonian Council on Foreign Relations

Following its meeting with Estonian parliamentarians in the Riigikogu, the delegation had a working dinner with founding members of the Estonian Council on Foreign Relations (Harri Tiido, Raivo Vare, and Raul Rebane) – a group that promotes foreign policy discussions that take into account an Estonian perspective. Siim Alatalu, a cybersecurity fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security and National Defence Committee Chairman Stoicescu also joined.

Discussion topics included Estonian efforts to address Russian disinformation – including the decision by the country’s Consumer Protection and Technical Regulatory Authority to cut off access to certain Russian websites; NATO’s approach to cyberdefence; and potential Russian sabotage of Estonia’s underwater infrastructure, including telecommunications cables and pipelines. 

H. Veiko Kommussaar, Deputy Director General of the Police and Border Guard Board

On the morning of 12 November 2024, the delegation met with Veiko Kommussaar, Deputy Director General of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board. Ambassador Hirdle began the meeting by emphasizing how effectively Canadian and Estonian authorities collaborate. As an example, he mentioned that the Canada Border Services Agency had quickly acquired indispensable information from their Estonian counterparts, earlier in the year, which facilitated a large cocaine seizure in Halifax.

Mr. Kommussaar then gave a presentation entitled, “Overview of the Situation at the Border.” Mr. Kommussaar explained that the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board was formed in 2010, merging several agencies, and has 5,000 employees. Roughly half are women. He then showed a series of slides.

The first slide showed Estonia’s river, lake, and land borders with Russia, which are 76.7 km-, 126.3 km-, and 135.6 km-long respectively. Unlike Poland and Finland, which have had to deal with a significant number of irregular migrants at their borders – encouraged by Russia and Belarus – Estonia’s borders, he said, have been relatively quiet. From January to October 2024, there were only 198 cases of illegal migration at Estonian border crossings. One exception, however, was the Narva River border crossing.

In May, Mr. Kommussaar said, the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board began closing the border crossing to Russia between 11:00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m. following the arrival of a wave of irregular migrants. It subsequently began imposing full inspections at the border to address the smuggling of sanctioned goods into Russia. Every vehicle entering Russia from Estonia is now inspected. He also said there had recently been Russian hybrid operations in Estonia, including the vandalization of vehicles belonging to the Minister of the Interior and an Estonian journalist.

Mr. Kommussaar then noted that Estonia is in the process of finalizing the construction of a border fence that will cover a significant portion of its land border with Russia; is in the early stages of building a so-called drone wall to further protect the border; and is trying to reach an agreement with Russia over navigation buoys in the Narva River. He told the delegation that in May 2024, Russian border guards began removing the buoys demarcating the border without explanation, causing significant confusion. He said Estonia did not want the entire river to be closed, but that the matter needed to be resolved.

Mr. Kommussaar concluded by observing how much Russia’s relationship with the EU – and Estonia more specifically – had deteriorated in the last ten years. In 2013, Russia and the EU had been negotiating visa liberalization, and now EU member states are closing their borders with Russia entirely. At the EU level, he said, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was the principal initial cause of the relationship’s deterioration. For Estonia, however, there was an additional catalyst. In 2014, Russia abducted an Estonian police officer from Estonian territory and brought him to Russia, where he was subsequently charged with espionage and sentenced. The incident, he said, served as a wake-up call and spurred some of the border security enhancements still being undertaken in Estonia.  

I. Major General Andrus Merilo, Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces

The delegation then went to the EDF headquarters for a briefing by Major General Andrus Merilo, Commander of the EDF.

Major General Merilo began his briefing with two quotations. The first was from the late British military historian, Sir Michael Howard: “No matter how clearly one thinks, it is impossible to predict precisely the character of future conflict. The key is to not be so far off the mark that it becomes impossible to adjust once that character is revealed.”

The second quotation was from the ancient Greek historian, Thucydides: “The strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must.”

Major General Merilo used both to frame the main messages of his presentation: that despite resource constraints and its challenges in Ukraine, Russia is preparing to escalate; the Baltic states are likely targets; and Estonia and NATO need to continue preparing for that scenario.

At the outset, Major General Merilo said it must be understood that Russia, from its perspective, is already fighting NATO. In that respect, he added, the Gerasimov Doctrine (named after Russian General Valery Gerasimov) is instructive. The doctrine articulates a theory of total war that is largely nonmilitary and prioritizes hybrid tactics including disinformation, cyberattacks, economic pressure and coercion, and the use of proxy forces. Major General Merilo expressed 100% certainty that Russia will not stop in Ukraine and will continue to escalate. While that could happen anywhere, in Europe, he continued, the Baltic States are the easiest to attack. He said the Soviet Union’s 1944 Riga offensive was likely being used as an example in Russian military schools.

Major General Merilo said that he viewed a Russian attack as a matter of when rather than if. Russia has transformed its economy into a war economy, he continued, and Estonia – and NATO more broadly – needed to be ready for a significant escalation within five years.

Borrowing from the Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, Major General Merilo then presented a simple formula of victory: R = M x W, where R refers to the power of resistance, M is the means available, and W is the strength of will. Russia knows that NATO is still superior to it in terms of technology and personnel, he said, but they doubt NATO’s will and see its collective nature as a significant weakness. In conclusion, he said that he has no concerns about NATO members’ commitment to collective defence, enshrined in Article 5 of The North Atlantic Treaty, but that he was concerned about NATO members’ ability to enforce that commitment quickly enough.

J. Major Jean-Sebastien Cormier, Chief of Staff, United Kingdom, HQ Cabrit

The delegation was then briefed by Major Jean-Sebastien Cormier, Chief of Staff of Operation Cabrit – the U.K.’s contribution to NATO’s Forward Land Forces in Estonia and Poland.

Major Cormier began by telling the delegation that he was born in Quebec, where his parents continue to live, but that he was educated in the U.S. and the U.K., where he subsequently joined the army. He then provided an overview of Operation Cabrit.

Just as Canada leads the multinational NATO battlegroup in Latvia, he explained, the U.K. leads in Estonia. A significant difference between the two, however, is that there are 13 contributing countries in Latvia, but much fewer contributing in Estonia. It was principally the U.K. and France, he said, with a small contribution from Iceland. 

Since 2017, he continued, the U.K. has deployed a battalion of around 1,000 personnel to Estonia, on six-month to two-year rotations, to the multinational NATO battlegroup. This battlegroup is integrated into the first Infantry Brigade of the EDF. Beginning in July 2025, he said, the U.K.’s 4th Brigade Combat Team, which is based in the U.K., will be on standby to deploy to Estonia on short notice. While this approach was taken as a cost-saving measure, he clarified that the standby force will be dedicated to nothing else and will regularly exercise in Estonia with the battlegroup.

The three framework or lead nations of multinational NATO battlegroups in the Baltic States – the U.K., Germany, and Canada – have all taken different approaches, in terms of infrastructure and a permanent presence, to standing up a brigade, he said. All, however, contribute effectively to NATO’s deterrence posture. 

PARLIAMENTARY MISSION TO POLAND

Late in the afternoon of 12 November 2024, the delegation flew from Tallinn to Warsaw, Poland. Upon arrival in Warsaw, the delegation went to a networking reception hosted by the Canadian public and private sector delegation to the 2024 International ReBuild Ukraine conference and tradeshow, which began the following day.

At the reception, Senator Wellsintroduced the delegation and delivered opening remarks that addressed the purpose of the parliamentary mission as well as Canada’s multifaceted support of Ukraine.

Following the reception, Senator Wells and Frank Des Rosiers, Assistant Deputy Minister, Strategic Policy and Innovation, at Natural Resources Canada, attended a dinner hosted by Paweł Kowal, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Polish Parliament (Sejm). The dinner was also attended by ambassadors and government officials from Belgium, Czechia, the European Commission, Finland, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the U.K.

At the same time, the other members of the delegation attended a separate dinner with officials from Natural Resources Canada; Peter Cahill, a Canadian Trade Commissioner posted in Kyiv; and Zenon Potoczny, the President of the Canada-Ukraine Chamber of Commerce. Mr. Cahill related some of his experiences on the ground in Kyiv and explained how the Ukraine Air Alert application and shelter system work. Mr. Potoczny informed the delegation about some of the Canadian companies operating in Ukraine, and the Natural Resources Canada officials provided some additional information about the Canadian pavilion at the ReBuild Ukraine conference.

A. Briefing by Canada’s Ambassador to Poland, Catherine Godin

On the morning of 13 November 2024, Canada’s Ambassador to Poland, Catherine Godin, provided a briefing to the delegation at the Canadian embassy.

Ambassador Godin began by telling the delegation that the Polish government has appreciated how much attention Canadian Cabinet ministers and parliamentarians have paid to Poland in recent years. She said that Poland’s strength is not widely understood outside of Europe and that there is a tendency to continue associating the country with the communist era. In reality, she continued, Poland has the fifth-largest economy in the EU and is aiming to spend 5% of its GDP on defence in 2025. To date, in 2024, its defence spending as a percentage of GDP was higher than any other NATO member.

Ambassador Godin said that 2025 will be an important year for Poland. From January to June 2025, it will hold the Presidency of the Council of the EU, and she expected Ukraine would be a priority. Towards the end of that presidency, there will be domestic presidential elections. The incumbent, Andrzej Duda, she explained, is constitutionally barred from running for a third term, and the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk views the election as crucial. This was because Duda, who comes from the opposition Law and Justice Party – the primary opposition to Tusk’s governing Civic Coalition – had been using his presidential veto repeatedly to block Tusk’s legislative agenda.

Ambassador Godin noted that there are 300 Canadian soldiers on the ground in Poland, working with their Polish counterparts, to train Ukrainian soldiers under Operation UNIFIER; and Poland has also contributed tanks and troops to the Canada-led NATO multinational battlegroup in Latvia. Regarding trade and investment, she noted that Pratt & Whitney Canada has been active in Poland for 35 years and that Canadian exports are led by aerospace products. At the same time, she added that there are also significant opportunities for Canadian companies in the resources sector. Poland is heavily reliant on coal for energy production and is looking to Canadian companies as it transitions to renewable energy sources. To that end, she mentioned that Ontario Energy Minister Stephen Lecce was arriving the next day in Warsaw on a nuclear energy-focused trade mission.

Finally, Ambassador Godin said that Poland, for historical reasons, views the U.S. as its closest ally. She provided some examples. The thirteenth of U.S. President Woodrow Wilson’s 14-point peace plan in 1918, she pointed out, was the creation of an independent Polish state, which the Polish people have not forgotten. Decades later, in 1981, U.S. President Ronald Reagan gave a speech right before Christmas in which he asked Americans to turn off their Christmas lights and light candles in their windows in support of Poland’s Solidarity Movement, which opposed the country’s communist regime. Half the country, she said, was estimated to have watched the speech.

B. 4th International ReBuild Ukraine Conference

Following the briefing by Ambassador Godin, the delegation attended the ReBuild Ukraine conference and tradeshow site. At the Canadian pavilion, the delegation met with officials from Export Development Canada, provincial government officials from Saskatchewan and Alberta, and representatives from Canadian companies, including Stantec, Aecon, Victor Energy, Total Containment, Nucleom, and Duraflex Solutions.

After exploring other pavilions, including one that included a dozen Ukrainian municipalities, the delegation listened to presentations by Gert Jan Koopman, Director-General in the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations, and Jan Szyszko, Secretary of State at the Polish Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy.

Mr. Koopman began his presentation by providing an overview of the financial support that the EU has provided to Ukraine. He then provided an update on Ukraine’s EU accession process. In June, he said, Ukraine began accession negotiations, and the European Commission’s latest Ukraine enlargement report showed that Ukraine is making progress on the reforms demanded by the EU. He was confident, he said, that Ukraine would be joining the club. In conclusion, he noted that the previous May, Poland had celebrated the twentieth anniversary of its accession to the EU. The tangible impact of its EU membership, he said, was on display throughout the country.

Mr. Szyszko echoed Mr. Koopman’s observation about the impact on Poland of EU membership and highlighted the success of Poland’s decentralized approach to investing EU funds. Regarding Ukraine, he said that there is a need to create financial instruments that incentivise foreign companies to invest in the country.

Following Mr. Szyszko’s remarks, the delegation left for the airport to travel to Latvia.

PARLIAMENTARY MISSION TO LATVIA

The delegation arrived in Riga, Latvia the evening of 13 November 2024 and was greeted by three officials from the Canadian embassy: David Pooler, Counsellor (Political Affairs); Sam Condie, Second Secretary (Political Affairs); and Aija Matule, Political and Public Affairs Officer.

Mr. Pooler gave the delegation a condensed briefing ahead of a reception being hosted that night by the Latvian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Defence.

The reception, he said, was taking place on the eve of the Exercise Resolute Warrior 2024 (Ex REWA) Distinguished Visitors’ Day at the Ādaži Military Base. Ex REWA, he explained, involved 3,500 allied troops and was the first major field war-fighting exercise for the Canadian-led NATO Multinational Brigade. It was also the first Canadian-led brigade field exercise held in Europe in over 30 years. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, he added, would be attending.

Mr. Pooler said that Canada’s bilateral relationship with Latvia had been significantly strengthened, as one might expect, by Canada’s military presence in the country. There were also important commercial developments in recent years. In August, he noted, the Latvian airline Air Baltic placed an order for an additional 10 A220 Airbus aircraft, which would be made in Mirabel, Quebec. He also highlighted the operations of Alimentation Couche-Tard. In 2012, the Canadian multinational firm purchased 78 Statoil service stations in Lithuania, 76 in Estonia and 80 in Latvia. Operating under the Circle K brand, it quickly became one of the largest Canadian employers and corporate taxpayers in all three.

The delegation then departed for the reception.

A. Reception Event

Upon arriving at the Latvian National History Museum, the delegation was greeted by the Latvian ministers of Defence and Foreign Affairs, who were hosting the reception in advance of the Ex REWA live-fire demonstration at Ādaži Military Base. Both ministers then delivered introductory remarks.

Foreign Affairs Minister Baiba Braže began by noting that she had just completed her 10-day National Guard training in the Latvian wilderness. She recognized the Canadian delegation and thanked Canada for its leadership, since 2017, in establishing and maintaining the multinational presence in Latvia as the NATO Framework Nation.

She said that the following day’s demonstration and the conclusion of Ex REWA came during a particularly significant time in the Latvian calendar – Patriots’ Week – during which Latvians pay tribute (11 November) to the soldiers who fought for Latvian independence (1918-1920) and celebrate Latvia’s Proclamation of the Independence (18 November). She concluded by highlighting that Latvia will spend 3.5% of GDP on defence in 2025 and saying that Latvians view Ukraine as fighting for their freedom too.

Defence Minister Andris Sprūds similarly thanked Canada for its presence in Latvia and stressed – in reference to Canadian Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Jennie Carignan, also in attendance – how important it is to have women in leadership positions. CDS Carignan then thanked Latvia for its support as a host nation, as well as all the contributing nations, and said that the battlegroup had performed excellently in Ex REWA.

B. Distinguished Visitors Day at Ādaži Military Base

On the morning of 14 November 2024, the delegation departed for the Ādaži Military Base. The Distinguished Visitors Day Program at the base began with briefings by Major General Jette Albinus, the Danish Commander of NATO’s Multinational Division North – NATO's most North-eastern Headquarters in Europe – and Canadian Lieutenant Colonel Cédric Aspirault, Commander of NATO Multinational Brigade Latvia (MNB-LVA).

They discussed the transformation of NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) Battlegroup in Latvia into MNB-LVA and the challenges overcome – notably in terms of communication – in integrating personnel from 13 NATO member states. By 2026, they explained, Canada will deploy up to 2,200 CAF members permanently to the Multinational Brigade and the other troop-contributing nations will contribute an additional 1,200. Lieutenant Colonel Aspirault stressed how important it had been to make sure MNB-LVA was truly a NATO Brigade – as opposed to a Canadian one. Despite the linguistic and cultural diversity, he said they had succeeded in creating the strongest headquarters and most synchronized brigade he had ever seen.

They then provided more details about Ex REWA. The exercise, they said, was intended to replicate an Article 5 scenario – that is, an armed attack on Latvia, and not ambiguous grey zone or hybrid activities. British forces from the eFP Battlegroup in Poland played the role of the opposition forces. A total of 3,500 Allied troops participated. The exercise took place in a 70-kilometre area and the Latvian National Guard communicated to the local population when military assets were transported through civilian areas. An airport seizure was part of the exercise. Ex REWA, they added, was intended to test MNB-LVA’s interoperability and C3 (Command, Control, and Communications) and it was successful. At the same time, they said it reinforced the increasing importance of ‘eyes in the sky,’ meaning drones.   

Following the briefings, the delegation joined the NATO Secretary General, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, Prime Minister ​Evika Silina, Canada’s CDS, and Canada’s Ambassador to Latvia, Brian Szwarc, to observe a dynamic firepower demonstration. They then met individual Allied troops, who were displaying and answering questions about their weapons and equipment.

C. Meeting with Members of Foreign Affairs and European Affairs committees of the Latvian Saiema

Later that afternoon, Ambassador Szwarc accompanied the delegation to the Saeima (Latvian Parliament) for a meeting with members of the Foreign Affairs and European Affairs committees, including Ināra Mūrniece, Andrejs Vilks, Edvards Smiltēns, Irma Kalniņa, and Edmunds Cepurītis.

Ms. Mūrniece, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, opened the meeting by describing what an important day it had been for Latvia, with the visit of the NATO Secretary General and the culmination of Ex REWA. She thanked the delegation for Canada’s leadership of MNB-LVA and the recent establishment, in May 2024, of a Canada-Latvia parliamentary friendship group. She said bilateral relations are excellent at both the military and political levels.

Senator Wells thanked the Latvian parliamentarians for their warm welcome and for treating Canada’s Armed Forces as if they were their own. He then turned the floor to Ambassador Szwarc. Ambassador Szwarc highlighted the Roadmap, signed in July 2023, for scaling up the Canada-led multinational Battle Group to a Brigade. The three-phased approach outlined in the Roadmap, he said, was nearing completion. He complimented Latvia for how quickly they built the infrastructure necessary to support the Brigade.

Senator Patterson noted that the Canadian leadership of MNB-LVA had made a concerted effort to de-Canadianize the Brigade and thanked the Latvian authorities for their grace and kindness in the wake of the death in Latvia, the previous month, of a Canadian soldier. For her part, Ms. Kalniņa told the delegation that every time she sees a Canadian soldier on the street, she thanks them for their service. 

Mr. Bergeron reiterated one of his main takeaways from the Estonia portion of the mission – that it was only a matter of time until Russia attacked the Baltics and that it was urgent for Canada to increase its defence spending. In that regard, Mr. Vilks noted that Latvia was on track to spend 3.5% of its GDP on defence and would allocate 0.25% of its GDP to help Ukraine.

Ms. Damoff then raised the topic of Russian disinformation and propaganda. She specifically mentioned Canada’s decision to ban the Russian state-controlled network RT as well as the recent revelations about Russian funding of Tenet Media – a U.S. media company co-founded by a Canadian. She asked how Latvia tackles disinformation.

Mr. Cepurītis said that part of Latvia’s response involves supporting public media and civil society. He also stressed the importance of constant government communication – that is, of explaining why actions are being taken. In the Russian context, Mr. Mūrniece said it is difficult for non-Russian speakers to understand the extent of the indoctrination and brainwashing. She concluded by telling the Canadian delegation that Putin’s red lines should not be believed and should not constrain Western actions in support of Ukraine. 

D. Tour of the Saiema

The delegation was then given a tour of the Saiema. A guide explained, among other things, that Latvia still uses its 1922 constitution, which is one of the world’s shortest. She said that Saiema committees meet from Monday to Wednesday and that the full 100-member plenary only meets on Thursdays. Members spend Fridays in their constituencies.

She then showed the delegation a candelabrum made by the Latvian-Canadian artist Eduard Spravniks, which is on permanent display in a room outside the plenary chamber. The delegation advised the guide that the Canadian Parliament has a similar Spravniks candelabrum in its collection, and several members suggested it should be taken out when Latvian delegations visit Canada.

E. Dinner hosted by Zanda Kalniņa-Lukaševica, Deputy Speaker of the Saeima

Zanda Kalniņa-Lukaševica, Deputy Speaker of the Saeima, then hosted a dinner for the delegation. She was joined by several Members of Parliament, including Edvards Smiltēns and Irma Kalniņa, as well as Ivars Lasis, Political Director in the Foreign Affairs Ministry, and Kaspars Svilāns, Foreign Affairs advisor to the Saeima Presidium (Speaker, Deputy Speakers, Secretary, and Deputy Secretary).

In an opening toast, Ms. Kalniņa-Lukaševica said that true friendship is shown in difficult times and that Canada has been a consistent supporter of Latvia and the Latvian people – by opening Canada’s borders to those fleeing Soviet oppression, never recognizing the Soviet occupation, and now serving as the framework nation of MNB-LVA.

Over the course of the dinner, many subjects were discussed. These included measures the Latvian government has taken to restrict the use of the Russian language in the country – from phasing out second-language education to removing a Russian language option from bank machines; the challenges of federalism in Canada; and the different roles of parliamentary committees in each country. The delegation learned, for example, that Saeima committees can initiate legislation. 

F. Breakfast with Canadian Armed Forces Members

On the morning of 15 November 2024, the delegation and Ambassador Szwarc met with Colonel Phil Sauvé, Defence Attaché at the Canadian Embassy in Latvia; Lieutenant Colonel Joel Maley, Deputy Commander, CAF Task Force Latvia; and Patrick Burchat, Policy Advisor, CAF Task Force Latvia.

Colonel Sauvé told the delegation that Operation Reassurance – primarily focused on MNB-LVA – is the Canadian Armed Forces’ largest overseas mission since Afghanistan, and that a significant portion of Canada’s land forces are deployed to Latvia. He said there are personnel from bases around the country, including Valcartier, Petawawa, and Edmonton.

In NATO terms, he explained that MNB-LVA is now “validated” and that the next step will be getting it combat-ready by October 2025. He described MNB-LVA as NATO’s most multinational brigade and said that there will be 14 contributing nations when Sweden joins.

While there continue to be communication challenges in MNB-LVA – since many soldiers are speaking their second or third languages – Colonel Sauvé said that enough senior officials speak fluent English. The large number of French-Canadians currently deployed to MNB-LVA, he added, had also had an equalizing effect

Ms. Damoff observed that there were not many women at the Ādaži Military Base the previous day and asked Colonel Sauvé what efforts had been made to address gender differences at the Camp. Colonel Sauvé noted that Canada is above the NATO average in terms of women in the military, but that many NATO allies’ militaries are still dominated by men. Mr. Burchat informed the delegation that Task Force Latvia – the Canadian mission supporting MNB-LVA – is hoping to have a full-time gender advisor assigned in 2025. Lieutenant Colonel Maley added that there will eventually be two.

Colonel Sauvé also addressed some other significant developments regarding NATO and the Baltic countries’ collective defence. Finland, he noted, had requested the establishment of an enhanced forward presence mission, like MNB-LVA, and Sweden had announced its intention to be the Framework Nation there. Furthermore, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania had jointly agreed, the previous January, to build a defensive line along its borders with Russia and Belarus that would consist of bunkers and other kinds of infrastructure.

The delegation concluded the meeting by expressing their appreciation for the work the Canadian Armed Forces are doing in Latvia.

G. Guided Tour of the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia

Later in the morning, the delegation was given a guided tour of the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia – a state-supported private museum that opened in 1993 and covers the country’s twentieth-century history. Solvita Vība, the museum’s director, greeted the delegation upon arrival.

The guide began her tour by explaining that the collapse of empires after World War I allowed small states like Latvia to emerge. She briefly discussed Latvia’s War of Independence against the Soviet Union (1918-1920); the Nazi occupation (1941-1944), in which 70% of the country’s Jewish population was murdered within six months; and the subsequent Soviet occupation and annexation (1944-1990), which countries, including Canada, never recognized.

The tour continued with an exhibit showing a photo of the Baltic Chain – a pro-independence demonstration in August 1989 that involved approximately 2 million people joining hands to form a human chain across Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The guide concluded the tour by showing the delegation the museum’s final exhibit – a stanza from a poem by the Latvian poet Knuts Skujenieks:

Do not shed your tears for yesterday.

Do not fear what comes tomorrow.

Just in a steadfast, measured way,

plough your furrow – straight and narrow.

When the museum was designed, she explained, they were not sure what the final exhibit should be. Skujenieks’ words were viewed as a tribute to Latvia’s history and a recognition that the country needed to be diligent in defending its freedom and democracy.

H. Visit to NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence

The delegation then visited the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (CoE), where it met with Director Jānis Sārts and CAF Lieutenant-Colonel Bonnie L. Golbeck – Canada’s contribution, in terms of personnel, to the CoE.

Mr. Sārts began his briefing by explaining that NATO, in recent years, has become increasingly focused on what it has termed “cognitive warfare” – actions taken by bad actors to affect the way the populations of NATO members and partners think and behave. Flooding social media with disinformation, he said, was an example of this warfare. The CoE, he explained, is a knowledge-creation hub that publishes case studies and helps develop doctrine and training in response. Almost all this content is publicly available by default.

Mr. Sārts said that China and Russia view cognitive warfare as being equally important to traditional, kinetic warfare, but that it has never been clear to what extent they are cooperating. Russia, he stressed, does not mind if it gets caught, while China cares deeply about its global reputation. While there has been significant attention paid to Twitter/X and Facebook in recent years, Mr. Sārts described TikTok as by far the most effective application for targeting individuals with disinformation. Since its parent company, Bytedance, is required to provide the Chinese government data, he said there is a serious concern that the Chinese government could use that data to its advantage in a conflict.

On the subject of generative artificial intelligence (AI), Mr. Sārts told the delegation that chatbots like Chat GPT have proven to be useful tools of persuasion. He mentioned a study that showed as little as 10 minutes of interaction with a chatbot significantly reduced the average participant’s belief in conspiracy theories. He also addressed the subject of digitally altered sound or videos, commonly known as deepfakes. For the time being, he said, deepfake audio is much more sophisticated than deepfake video.

In terms of a response to cognitive warfare, Mr. Sārts said that regulating AI is essential, but must be done in a way that respects democratic principles and avoids unduly restricting innovation. In that respect, he was very critical of the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act. He added that fact-checking – another popular tool used in response to cognitive warfare – has proven very ineffective, rarely convincing more than 1%-3% of people. Finally, he said that pre-bunking – a strategy to pre-emptively debunk disinformation – has shown great promise. As an example, he cited the Biden administration’s strategic release of classified intelligence about Russia’s intentions vis-à-vis Ukraine in the lead-up to the 24 February 2022 full-scale invasion. The Russians, he said, did not know how to react.

I. Expert Discussion on Russia’s Ongoing War of Aggression and Latvia’s Response

The delegation and Ambassador Szwarc had a final lunchtime meeting with Māris Cepurītis, Director of the Riga-based Centre for East European Policy Studies; Andris Teikmanis, Latvia’s former Ambassador to the U.S., the Council of Europe, Russia, Germany, and the U.K.; and Igors Rajevs, the Parliamentary Secretary for the Ministry of Interior.

Reflecting on his diplomatic career, former Ambassador Teikmanis told the delegation that he has served as Latvia’s ambassador to Russia during the Dmitry Medvedev presidency and met with Vladimir Putin on many occasions. Putin, he said, never struck him as a risk-taker, which led him to believe that Putin had been misled about how easily Russia would defeat Ukraine.

Members of the delegation told the Ambassador that the Estonians the delegation met were under the impression that it was only a matter of time before Russia tried to invade the Baltic countries and sought his views on the subject. Ambassador Teikmanis disagreed with that assessment and said that a Russian attack on the Baltics, given their NATO membership, would be a suicide mission. He also did not believe that the Baltic states were as important to Russia as Ukraine. Finally, he expressed optimism, from the Latvian perspective, about the upcoming Trump presidency. In Trump’s first term, he noted, U.S. military assistance to Latvia increased.

Mr. Rajevs, for his part, added that the cost of any prolonged Russian occupation of Ukraine would be immense and would require a permanent, significant presence in the country. He said that the American occupation of Iraq was instructive in that respect. In response to a question about Russia’s evasion of sanctions, Mr. Rajevs said that trade data prove that countries like Kazakhstan are serving as a conduit for Russian goods and that the policy of gradually imposing sanctions on Russia needs to be immediately replaced by severe, all-encompassing sanctions.

In response to several questions from the delegation, Mr. Cepurītis discussed, among other things, whether Russia might change after Putin and the opinions of ethnically Russian Latvians on the war in Ukraine. Mr. Cepurītis said that Putin had built a top-down power apparatus in Russia over 25 years that he called a “vertical of power.” Since so many at the upper echelons of the Russian apparatus had benefited from the existing system, Mr. Cepurītis did not believe significant changes in Russian foreign and domestic policy were likely, regardless of who succeeded Putin. Indeed, he was of the view that Putin’s successor would likely be as, if not more imperialistic and authoritarian. He characterized the brief June 2023 uprising in Russia led by Yevgeny Prigozhin as an anomaly that would not likely be repeated.

Regarding the views of ethnically Russian Latvians, Mr. Cepurītis said that polling has shown only 5% of Latvians support Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Given that roughly a quarter of the Latvian population is ethnically Russian, he said it was clear that most of that population opposed the war. He attributed part of this opposition to Russia’s decimation of ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine, and the Latvian state media regulator’s decision to block access to Russian propaganda websites. He also noted that the Harmony political party, often characterized as “pro-Russia”, had lost all its seats in Latvia’s 2022 parliamentary elections.

Travel Expenses

Travel expenses associated with this activity can be found in the delegation’s financial report. This report is available in the Financial Disclosure section of the Parliamentary Diplomacy website.

Respectfully submitted,

James Maloney, M.P.
President, Canada-Europe Parliamentary Association